1.
What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2009/03/can-humans-live.html
Work being done at Cambridge. One geneticist thinks some people alive today will live to be 1000. I don't think so. Show me a documented person who has lived 200 years, 300 years, 600 years, 800 years, and then we can talk about living for a 1000years.
http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/2/4/2/9/1/pages242911/p242911-1.php
"This paper presents data from 18 semi-structured interviews with genetic researchers working to understand the genetic mechanisms of aging." It seems to focus on how society perceives the anti-aging research and if it is welcomed or feared. Some good points are raised about whether or not we should even be pursuing a longer lifespan.
http://www.prb.org/pdf06/NIA_FutureofLifeExpectancy.pdf
Have We Reached the Ceiling or is the Sky the Limit? This article makes some good arguments for an age ceiling. However, ~80 year for a person now, and likely in the future, is really more like 100,000 miles on your car. Yeah, you have to replace some stuff that fails around then but that doesn't mean you can't get anymore out of your car.
DNA database(s) of the future:
http://hubpages.com/hub/Criminal-DNA-Database
Criminal DNA Database. Isn't it a little creepy to think that your DNA is stored all over the US by the police, doctors, the government etc. Do the police really have the right to keep my DNA even if I'm not guilty?
http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/liberty-privacy-and-dna-databases
This article highlights liberty, Privacy, and DNA databases. We can all see the usefulness of DNA databases. This article gives us the dark side of DNA databases.
http://boards.library.trutv.com/showthread.php?t=293162
A forum post that links to a New York Times article about the FBI expanding their database to include all DNA samples they get, not just the samples from the guilty.
When will cars will be fully automated?
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
"Why we must do it. How we might get past the social and legal barriers. How it will change energy, pollution, cities, transit, war, work, real estate and manufacturing, and cars." This isn't just a webpage. This is a site devoted to the topic of "auto" automobile. Very interesting. This guy has really put some thought and research into this topic.
http://www.idsia.ch/~juergen/robotcars.html
Do people even want automatic cars? It’s a good point that needs to be considered.
http://eetimes.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=51200442&sub_taxonomyID=4217
This article is a good over all summery of where “auto” automobile technology is at currently, where it is likely to go, and what pieces of the technology will be most important.
2.
This is a ridiculously hard question to answer. Computers already do, well, everything. Voice, movies, music, documents, create, edit, print anything, surfing, gaming, work, etc., etc., etc. The only thing I could think of that some computer isn't already being used for is personal appointment scheduling. For example, I could verbally tell my computer to call my doctor and make an appointment for me (with conditions) while I am at work. "Computer, call the nearest doctors office and make an appointment for Tuesday between 10am and 1pm or Friday before 11am. I need to talk to him about this pain I keep having in my leg." "Yes, Mr. Smith. I will call today." The computer would know basic language for setting up appointments and store the information it got from the doctor's office. Also, it could automatically search for the office number online and print a map for you too."
I can't do this next part on computers as a whole so lets apply Triz to OS’s and computers in general.
1. "Taking out": remove the annoying user overprotection in Vista and put it only on computers designed for children.
2. "Merging": add the useful run functions from XP back to Vista
3. "Anti-weight": Make an OS “environment” smart. Make the computer waterproof with a floatation device that deploys if the hardware tells the OS water is detected. Could be extra useful for the military.
4. "Beforehand cushioning": design the OS to automatically back itself up at night
5. "Equipotentiality": Put airbags in the bottom of computers to soften falls and drops.
6. "Another dimension": add a storage compartment on the top of laptops to hold a notepad and pencil because sometimes its just easier to write a quick note by hand. Then, with your textbooks on your laptop, you wouldn't need to care a backpack.
7. "Mechanical vibration": Have your computer vibrate when it’s on silence. Programs that usually use sound to get the attention of the user can use vibration in the keyboard.
8. "Continuity of useful action": OS that automatically evaluates the condition of the computer and runs maintenance at night
9. "Feedback": OS that asks the user if they like a behavior and learns from the feedback.
10. "Mechanics substitution": projected screen and keyboard, which would allow the computer to be much smaller.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Homework 5: Prediction Trade
1. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record. -55% [HIGH]
2. JOBS.DEPART.DEC09
Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple on/before 31 Dec 2009 -10% [HIGH]
3. ARATA.COLD.FUSION.DEC09
Dr Arata's experiment to be replicated in peer-reviewed scientific journal on/before 31 Dec 2009 -4.5% [LOW] [45 shares at $.045 -> ~$2.03]
4. WINDOWS7.DEC09
Microsoft Windows 7 to be released on/before 31 Dec 2009 -95% [LOW]
[76 shares at $9.50 -> $722]
5. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 -20% [LOW] [47 shares at $2 -> $94]
6. BIRDFLU.USA.MAR10
Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA on/before 31 Mar 2010 -0% [LOW]
7. FORD.CHAP11.DEC09
Ford to announce before 31 Dec 2009 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy -1% [HIGH]
8. SURROGATES.+$18.0M
Surrogates to gross OVER $18.0M in opening weekend -49% [LOW]
[37 shares at $4.90 -> $181.30]
9. US.CREDIT.AAA-.DEC09
US Credit Rating to be put on negative outlook or downgraded by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 -8.5% [HIGH]
10. GOOGLE.75.0%+
Google market share to be 75.0% or more for December 2009 -70% [HIGH]
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record. -55% [HIGH]
2. JOBS.DEPART.DEC09
Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple on/before 31 Dec 2009 -10% [HIGH]
3. ARATA.COLD.FUSION.DEC09
Dr Arata's experiment to be replicated in peer-reviewed scientific journal on/before 31 Dec 2009 -4.5% [LOW] [45 shares at $.045 -> ~$2.03]
4. WINDOWS7.DEC09
Microsoft Windows 7 to be released on/before 31 Dec 2009 -95% [LOW]
[76 shares at $9.50 -> $722]
5. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 -20% [LOW] [47 shares at $2 -> $94]
6. BIRDFLU.USA.MAR10
Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA on/before 31 Mar 2010 -0% [LOW]
7. FORD.CHAP11.DEC09
Ford to announce before 31 Dec 2009 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy -1% [HIGH]
8. SURROGATES.+$18.0M
Surrogates to gross OVER $18.0M in opening weekend -49% [LOW]
[37 shares at $4.90 -> $181.30]
9. US.CREDIT.AAA-.DEC09
US Credit Rating to be put on negative outlook or downgraded by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 -8.5% [HIGH]
10. GOOGLE.75.0%+
Google market share to be 75.0% or more for December 2009 -70% [HIGH]
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Homework 4: Delphi Method Result
1.
"Find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses." My question was a yes or no question, which means doing the first part of this homework is awkward. I also accidentally destroyed my paint program in my freshmen year so...graph of some kind is likely to be by hand and uploaded later.
I got 7 "no" and 2 "yes" so "no" is my median.
2.
I will likely write a paper. I need to better understand the current situation so I need to do more research.
"Find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses." My question was a yes or no question, which means doing the first part of this homework is awkward. I also accidentally destroyed my paint program in my freshmen year so...graph of some kind is likely to be by hand and uploaded later.
I got 7 "no" and 2 "yes" so "no" is my median.
2.
I will likely write a paper. I need to better understand the current situation so I need to do more research.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Homework 3: Delphi Method
1.
Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
Why do I say it this way?
Simple and no ambiguity other then “software market”
Wish I could say something other then software market…
2.
What we did is more or less how Wikipedia describes the Delphi method only it says we should use experts. Another website, creatingminds.org, described it a little differently. It says that for the second and following rounds we should: “Take the responses that people send back to you and collate these into a single anonymous list or sets of lists. Send the collation back out to everyone with the request to score each item on a given scale (typically 1 to 5). You may also allow them to add further items as appropriate.” We didn’t score our responses. We just discussed them. Creatingminds.org also said we should respond anonymously.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method
http://creatingminds.org/tools/delphi.htm
3.
Groupthink (a type of thought produced when group members try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas.) Any time you have a group there is the danger of groupthink. "Why should I think when I can just agree?"
If people are aware of groupthink it can be reduced but not stopped completely.
Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
Why do I say it this way?
Simple and no ambiguity other then “software market”
Wish I could say something other then software market…
2.
What we did is more or less how Wikipedia describes the Delphi method only it says we should use experts. Another website, creatingminds.org, described it a little differently. It says that for the second and following rounds we should: “Take the responses that people send back to you and collate these into a single anonymous list or sets of lists. Send the collation back out to everyone with the request to score each item on a given scale (typically 1 to 5). You may also allow them to add further items as appropriate.” We didn’t score our responses. We just discussed them. Creatingminds.org also said we should respond anonymously.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method
http://creatingminds.org/tools/delphi.htm
3.
Groupthink (a type of thought produced when group members try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas.) Any time you have a group there is the danger of groupthink. "Why should I think when I can just agree?"
If people are aware of groupthink it can be reduced but not stopped completely.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Homework 2: Curves and Math
Part 1
So I have had this homework half done since Friday and I am only now getting back to it. You know, about a hour and 15 minutes before it’s due. This got me thinking about my procrastination and if I could predict my future level of procrastination. So the question is: is my habit only going to get worst over the semester or will it bottom out? Will the curve look more like an exponential curve or an s-curve? I usually procrastinate up to a point, but stop before catastrophic failure ensues. I will let things slip until that moment when I go, "Wo, that isn't going to have the best effect on my GPA." But that moment doesn't stop me from procrastinating. (I don't think anything could do that.) Instead, it just levels off right under my acceptable level of productivity. With all this in mind, I have decided that my procrastination for this semester, and likely the rest of my life, will look very much like an s-curve.
But what does the curve look like for everyone else? I did a little digging and found an article about the average GPA for levels of procrastination.
Severe 2.9
Moderate 3.4
Low 3.6
http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/procrast.htm
My GPA would be a 4.0 if it were not for that B in Cal-II (which was not caused by procrastination). So instead it is a 3.95. What does this mean? I have very high standards for myself or just that I'm really good at procrastination?? If I continue to get lots of practice with this skill will my GPA continue to remain awesome while my level of procrastination increases exponentially? We could use the exponential curse to express such an occurrence, however unlikely it is to occur.
Part 2
I'm not sure what is the best way to express this so I'm just going to give the different parts of part 2 letters and place the corresponding answers next to them.
A. ~ 12 years
B. ~ 41%
C. ~ 57%
D. ~ 35 years
So I have had this homework half done since Friday and I am only now getting back to it. You know, about a hour and 15 minutes before it’s due. This got me thinking about my procrastination and if I could predict my future level of procrastination. So the question is: is my habit only going to get worst over the semester or will it bottom out? Will the curve look more like an exponential curve or an s-curve? I usually procrastinate up to a point, but stop before catastrophic failure ensues. I will let things slip until that moment when I go, "Wo, that isn't going to have the best effect on my GPA." But that moment doesn't stop me from procrastinating. (I don't think anything could do that.) Instead, it just levels off right under my acceptable level of productivity. With all this in mind, I have decided that my procrastination for this semester, and likely the rest of my life, will look very much like an s-curve.
But what does the curve look like for everyone else? I did a little digging and found an article about the average GPA for levels of procrastination.
Severe 2.9
Moderate 3.4
Low 3.6
http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/procrast.htm
My GPA would be a 4.0 if it were not for that B in Cal-II (which was not caused by procrastination). So instead it is a 3.95. What does this mean? I have very high standards for myself or just that I'm really good at procrastination?? If I continue to get lots of practice with this skill will my GPA continue to remain awesome while my level of procrastination increases exponentially? We could use the exponential curse to express such an occurrence, however unlikely it is to occur.
Part 2
I'm not sure what is the best way to express this so I'm just going to give the different parts of part 2 letters and place the corresponding answers next to them.
A. ~ 12 years
B. ~ 41%
C. ~ 57%
D. ~ 35 years
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