Homework 5: Prediction Trade

1. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record. -55% [HIGH]

2. JOBS.DEPART.DEC09
Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple on/before 31 Dec 2009 -10% [HIGH]

3. ARATA.COLD.FUSION.DEC09
Dr Arata's experiment to be replicated in peer-reviewed scientific journal on/before 31 Dec 2009 -4.5% [LOW] [45 shares at $.045 -> ~$2.03]

4. WINDOWS7.DEC09
Microsoft Windows 7 to be released on/before 31 Dec 2009 -95% [LOW]
[76 shares at $9.50 -> $722]

5. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 -20% [LOW] [47 shares at $2 -> $94]

6. BIRDFLU.USA.MAR10
Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA on/before 31 Mar 2010 -0% [LOW]

7. FORD.CHAP11.DEC09
Ford to announce before 31 Dec 2009 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy -1% [HIGH]

8. SURROGATES.+$18.0M
Surrogates to gross OVER $18.0M in opening weekend -49% [LOW]
[37 shares at $4.90 -> $181.30]

9. US.CREDIT.AAA-.DEC09
US Credit Rating to be put on negative outlook or downgraded by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 -8.5% [HIGH]

10. GOOGLE.75.0%+
Google market share to be 75.0% or more for December 2009 -70% [HIGH]